Georges (pronounced Zhorzh) was the second
deadliest and second strongest hurricane within the Atlantic basin
during the 1998 season. Its 17 day journey resulted in seven
landfalls, extending from the northeastern Caribbean to the coast of
Mississippi, and 602 fatalities -- mainly in the Dominican Republic
and Haiti.
a. Synoptic History
Georges originated from a tropical wave,
observed by satellite and upper-air data, which crossed the west coast
of Africa late on 13 September. Rawinsonde data from Dakar, Senegal
showed an attendant 35 to 45 knot easterly jet between 550 and 650
millibars (mb). On the 14th, visible satellite imagery
depicted a large, well-defined cloud system in association with the wave
and meteorologists at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane
Center (NHC) Tropical
Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of
the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, and
the Air Force Weather
Agency (AFGWC) began satellite-based Dvorak intensity
classifications. By early on the 15th, ship reports
indicated the presence of a closed surface circulation in this system
and it is estimated that a tropical
depression formed at 1200 UTC, centered about 300 n mi
south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic,
as shown in the post-storm "best-track" -
see Table
1 and Figure 1
(39K GIF). During the next 24 hours the tropical depression continued to
become better organized as banding features developed and deep
convection formed over the center. The system became a tropical
storm at 1200 UTC on 16 September while centered about 620 n mi
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Georges moved on a persistent
west-northwest course for the next ten days, a classic Cape Verde-type
track, in response to a mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge which
strengthened with height.
Georges continued to gradually strengthen over the next
several days, reaching hurricane
intensity around 1800 UTC on 17 September when a banding-type eye feature
became evident in satellite imagery. By the 19th, an
upper-level anticyclone was well-established over Georges and satellite
pictures suggested that the hurricane was beginning to strengthen
rapidly, as indicated by the cooling cloud tops, increased symmetry of
the deep convection, and the warming and contracting of the well-defined
eye.
By early afternoon on the 19th, the first U.S.
Air Force Reserve (USAFR) reconnaissance aircraft reached the hurricane
and measured maximum flight-level winds of 146
knots and a minimum central pressure of 938 mb - confirming the
intensification trend noted in satellite imagery. Georges' winds were
increased to 125 knots at 1800 UTC on the
19th making it a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Scale.
Several Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwinsondes were
deployed within the eye-wall
region of the hurricane during these reconnaissance missions.
Near-surface (below 200 feet) wind estimates from these drops indicate
maximum winds from 134 knots to 150 knots. On
this basis, Georges is estimated to have reached a peak intensity of
135 knots at 0600 UTC on the 20th
while located about 285 n mi east of Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles.
Although GPS Dropwinsondes data is still being evaluated by scientists
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division,
preliminary research suggests that the observed near-surface winds
approximate one-minute values. For additional information on the GPS
Dropwindsondes, please see Franklin (1997) and Franklin et. al.
(1997).
Shortly after 0600 UTC 20 September, the
hurricane began a marked weakening trend with the eye becoming
indiscernible in satellite pictures, or to aerial reconnaissance by that
afternoon. Examination of water vapor satellite imagery and
satellite-derived wind analyses from the Cooperative Institute for
Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin suggest that one
possible factor responsible for the weakening could have been
upper-level northerly vertical wind shear induced by an upper-level
anticyclone located over the eastern Caribbean. By the evening of the
20th, the central pressure had risen 26 mb and Georges
weakened. It then made the first two of its seven landfalls in the
Lesser Antilles, first in Antigua then in St. Kitts and Nevis, early on
the 21st with maximum sustained surface winds of 100 knots.
By mid-morning of the 21st an upper-level low
over Cuba, denoted in water vapor imagery, was moving westward away from
Georges thereby reducing the possibility of Georges moving to the
northwest, away from Puerto Rico. Later in the afternoon, the shear
appeared to diminish and the outflow aloft improved but Georges never
fully recovered due in part to the circulation's interaction with Puerto
Rico. Georges made landfall in southeast Puerto Rico with sustained
surface winds of 100 knots on the evening of the
21st. The hurricane moved inland over Puerto Rico and
weakened slightly and then moved into the Mona Passage early on the
22nd. Georges began to re-intensify while over the Mona
Passage and made landfall later that morning in the Dominican Republic,
about 75 n mi east of Santo Domingo with estimated sustained surface
winds of 105 knots.
During the next 21 hours Georges weakened as it moved
slowly across the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti, where it produced copious rains resulting in deadly flash floods
and mud slides. The system emerged into the Windward Passage on the
morning of the 23rd with 65 knot
maximum winds. Georges changed little before making landfall in eastern
Cuba later that afternoon, about 25 n mi east of Guantanamo Bay. The
system retained hurricane status while moving slowly west-northwestward
across the northern coast of Cuba, exiting the northern coast by late
afternoon on the 24th. Satellite imagery showed that the
system retained a fairly impressive upper-level outflow pattern during
its crossing of both Hispaniola and Cuba.
Once back over water, the hurricane began to re-intensify.
Satellite pictures showed that a band of deep convection developed east
of the center early on the 25th which expanded throughout the
morning. Georges made landfall during mid-morning of the 25th
in Key West, Florida with a minimum central pressure of 981 mb and
maximum winds of 90 knots. After moving away
from Key West, Georges turned more to the northwest, then
north-northwest, and gradually slowed down on the 26th and
27th. This occurred in response to the mid-tropospheric
anticyclone north of the hurricane shifting eastward into the
southeastern United States. The hurricane made landfall near Biloxi,
Mississippi on the morning of the 28th with estimated maximum
sustained one-minute winds of 90 knots and a
minimum central pressure of 964 mb. After landfall, the system meandered
around southern Mississippi and was downgraded to a tropical storm on
the afternoon of the 28th.
Georges became quasi-stationary for the next 6 to 12 hours
moving in a cyclonic loop over southern Mississippi. The tropical storm
began moving in a generally northeast to east direction early on the
29th and was downgraded to a tropical depression by
mid-morning while located about 30 n mi north-northeast of Mobile,
Alabama. Georges continued to move eastward at 5 to 10 knots on the
29th and 30th. By early morning of 1
October, the system dissipated near the northeast
Florida/southeast Georgia coast, although a very weak remnant low did
emerge over the western Atlantic during the day. However, the remnant
circulation merged with a frontal zone by late on the
1st.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The best-track intensities in Table 1 were
obtained from the data in Figures 2
(26K GIF) and 3 (30K GIF)
which depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and
maximum sustained one-minute average "surface" (10 meters above ground
level) wind speed, respectively, as a function of time. These figures
also contain data upon which the curves are based: USAFR and NOAA
aircraft reconnaissance data, satellite-based Dvorak-technique
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and AFGWC, and estimates
from synoptic data analyses after landfall.
1. Wind and Pressure Data
The bulk of the aerial reconnaissance flights into Georges
were done by the USAFR
"Hurricane Hunters". The Hurricane Hunters flew
17 missions, and made 81 center fixes while NOAA aircraft
performed six missions contributing 24 center fixes. The highest wind
speed reported was 152 knots (at 700 mb) at 0112
UTC 20 September by the NOAA aircraft. The
lowest central pressure reported was 937 mb at 0613 UTC 20 September by
the Hurricane Hunters
with a corresponding maximum flight-level wind of 144
knots. During this period, subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB and AFGWC were T6.5
(127 knots/935 mb) and objective-based Dvorak
estimates ranged between T6.5 and T7.0 (140
knots/921 mb), all in good agreement with GPS dropwindsonde
pressure and wind estimates.
George's track brought it into range of several National
Weather Service Doppler radars (WSR-88D - Weather Surveillance
Radar-1988 Doppler) specifically; San Juan, Puerto Rico, Key West, FL, New Orleans, LA, and Mobile,
AL. The WSR-88D in San Juan, Puerto Rico measured winds near 100 knots aloft at 0205 UTC 22 September while the
center was located over central Puerto Rico. Dr. Joshua Wurman of the
University of Oklahoma was operating his dual doppler radar (Doppler-on-Wheels DOW) during
Georges' landfall in Biloxi, Mississippi. Around 0855 UTC 28 September,
the radar showed maximum wind near 107 knots,
which represents a 2 to 5 second gust. For further information on the DOW radar project, please refer to
Wurman (1998).
Several land-based locations within the Caribbean recorded
sustained hurricane-force winds during Georges passage including
Hamilton Airport and VITEMA/Herman Hill in St. Croix, Cyril E. King
Airport in St. Thomas, and all the official reporting sites in Puerto
Rico. The highest sustained wind and gust reported at an official site
was 78 knots and 93 knots, respectively, at
Roosevelt Roads Naval Station (TJNR) at 2302 UTC 21 September. These, as
well as other selected surface observations for Georges, are listed in
Table 2.
The highest unofficial wind report received in the Caribbean was a wind
gust of 153 knots (at an elevation of about 700
feet) from the island of Saba of the Netherlands Antilles at 1044 UTC 21
September. The corresponding minimum pressure recorded at the site was
971.9 mb.
As is often the case in the Caribbean, many unofficial
weather reports are relayed to the NHC via amateur radio operators.
These observations are invaluable in helping to determine conditions in
locations with no official weather reporting equipment. Table 3 lists
selected amateur radio surface weather reports for Georges. One of the
most important observations reported was in Fajardo, Puerto Rico where
the Civil Defense office measured a sustained wind of 96 knots with gusts to 113 knots at 2130 UTC 21
September. Operationally, this report was the basis of making Georges a
category 3 hurricane at andfall in Puerto Rico.
The USAFR reconnaissance reported a maximum flight-level
wind of 117 knots and a minimum central pressure
of 962 mb near the time of landfall in southeast Dominican
Republic.
Surface reports received from the Instituto de
Meteorologica in Cuba indicate that the maximum 1-minute surface
wind observed was 71 knots at Punta Lucrecia,
Holguin while the highest gust of 80 knots was
measured at Sagua La Grande, Villa Clara. The minimum central pressure
recorded over Cuba was 988 mb in Cayo Coco. All of these reports
occurred as Georges moved out of Cuba and into the Florida Straits where
it began to restrengthen.
The maximum sustained 2-minute wind recorded at Key West,
FL was 48 knots at 1353 UTC 25 September with
the peak gust of 76 knots; the minimum central
pressure reported was 982.5 mb. It should be noted that due to
equipment/power failure around 1500 UTC a higher wind and a lower
pressure value likely occurred. The highest gust recorded in the Florida
Keys was 96 knots at the Monroe County Emergency
Operations Center in Marathon. The Sombrero Key C-MAN buoy (SMKF1)
recorded a maximum sustained wind of 82 knots with a
peak gust to 92 knots at 1500 UTC 25 September. Moreover, this
buoy recorded hurricane-force winds for a three hour period (1300 - 1600
UTC). This, along with other National Data Buoy Center
(NDBC) observations, can be found in Table
4.
Georges made its final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi
around 1130 UTC on 28 September with maximum sustained surface winds of
90 knots and a minimum central pressure of 964
mb. The USAFR aircraft reported a 960 mb pressure at 0503 UTC. The
lowest pressure measured by a land station was 964.9 mb at 1055 UTC 28
September at Keesler Air Force Base (KBIX) in Biloxi, MS; Harrison
County Civil Defense in Gulfport, MS recorded 967.2 mb at 1015 UTC. The
NOAA ship Oregon II measured a minimum central pressure of 970 mb at
0830 UTC 28 September while in port in Pascagoula, MS. On the
28th, Keesler Air Force Base (KBIX) in Biloxi, MS reported
sustained hurricane-force winds (65 knots) at
0855 UTC. At 0755 UTC, KBIX reported wind gusts of 109
knots, and 149 knots at 0855 UTC 28
September. The latter value is considered to be invalid based on the
following: 1) DOW dual doppler maximum wind measurements made at the
same time at KBIX were near 107 knots
(considered a 2-5 second gust); 2) the anemometer at KBIX is a hot-wire
anemometer which has been shown to be prone to major errors in heavy
rain, e.g., the erroneous 205 knot wind gust in
Typhoon Paka (Hagemeyer, 1998); 3) USAFR dropwindsonde data from the
same time period measured a peak wind of 101
knots at 920 mb. An Texas Instrument WR25 anemometer, operated by
Mississippi Power and Light one mile north of the beach in Biloxi,
measured a wind gust of 102 knots.
Reconnaissance data from the USAFR aircraft suggest that
the boundary layer and inner core of the Georges never fully recovered
from its passage across Hispaniola and Cuba. Despite an apparently
healthy cloud and outflow pattern and a small, but gradual, drop in the
minimum central pressure of 13 mb (975-962 mb) in a 36-hour period from
early on the 26th to the evening of the 27th, the
eye was never able to become re-established. Most of the vortex messages
from the 26th through the 28th reported a
partially-formed eyewall - mostly open to the west or southwest. Also,
eyewall GPS dropwinsonde data near landfall in Mississippi suggest that
the winds at the surface were 20-30% below those at flight level (10,000
feet). This is in stark contrast to eyewall samples taken when Georges
was near peak intensity just east of the Leeward Islands where the
surface winds, on average, were equal to or greater than those at
10,000 feet.
Table 4
contains all known ship observations which reported winds of tropical
storm-force (34 knots) or higher associated with
Georges. The highest wind observation was 44
knots from Ship PJKP at 1500 UTC 29 September in the Gulf
of Mexico. The highest significant wave height reported by a ship was 13
feet (WFLG at 0900 UTC 22 September and C6JN at 1800 UTC
29 September) while the highest value recorded at a NDBC buoy was near 36 feet at
42040 in the Gulf of Mexico.
2. Storm Surge Data
The storm surge was
estimated to be near 10 feet in Fajardo, Puerto Rico while values of 4
to 6 feet were typical in the Florida Keys. Preliminary storm surge
estimates along the central and east Gulf Coast range from 5 to 9 feet
in Louisiana and Mississippi (maximum of 8.9 feet at Point A La Hache,
LA and Point Cadet, Biloxi, MS) to 5 to 12 feet in Alabama (5 to 10 feet
in Mobile County and 7 to 12 feet in Baldwin County). The two highest
values received from Alabama are 9.3 feet which occurred in west Mobile
Bay, and 11.9 feet in Fort Morgan. In the Florida Panhandle, the storm
surge in Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties was estimated to be
5 to 10 feet. Of course breaking waves superimposed on the storm surge
will result in even higher water marks. At the time of this writing,
official United States Corps of Engineers/Geological Survey (USCE/USGS)
storm surge site survey values have not been received.
3. Rainfall Data
Georges was a substantial rain-producer in portions of the
Caribbean and the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico coast. In the U.S.
Virgin islands, rainfall totals were generally between 3 and 8 inches.
In Puerto Rico, the maximum official two-day USGS rain gage measurement
was 24.62 IN in Lago El Guineo near Villalba while the maximum
Cooperative Observer (CO-OP) two-day total reported was 28.36 inches in
Jayuya. Figure 4
(43K GIF) shows the USGS rainfall analysis for Puerto Rico in 5-inch
isohyets - of particular interest is the large swath of 10-15 inch
values.
No surface-based rainfall estimates are available from the
Dominican Republic or Haiti, two of the hardest-hit countries.
Satellite-derived rainfall estimates suggest that as much as 39 inches
of rain may have fallen over portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti over a 24-hour period ending around 1200 UTC on the
23rd. Over Cuba, the Instituto de Meteorologica
reported a maximum storm total of 24.41 inches in Limonar.
Rainfall in the Florida Keys was considerably less than
what was seen over Cuba or Hispaniola, with Key West recording 8.38
inches. In contrast, storm totals along the Gulf Coast were noticeably
higher owing to the hurricane's marked deceleration. The maximum
rainfall total from an official observation site was 24.24 inches at
Eglin AFB (KVPS) in the Florida Panhandle while the highest storm total
was 29.66 inches from a CO-OP in Bay Minette, AL. Rainfall totals
generally ranged from 10 to 20 inches over most of southern Mississippi
and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle - see Figure 5
(52K GIF). In response to the heavy rains, widespread river flooding
occurred in southern Mississippi from 30 September through 2 October
flooding homes and forcing evacuations. The Tchoutacabouffa River at
D'Iberbville, MS set a record crest of 19 feet at 0200 UTC 30
September.
4. Tornadoes
Most of the reported tornado activity associated with
Georges occurred in Florida and Alabama with a total of 28 tornadoes
estimated to have touched down, mostly in northwest Florida. No deaths
were directly attributible to these tornadoes. Two tornadoes were also
reported in Puerto Rico.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Table 5 lists
the deaths and insured damage estimates associated with Georges. The
602* direct deaths attributed to Georges make it the
19th deadliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin this
century (Rappaport and Partagas, 1995). As shown in Table 6, most
of the deaths associated with Georges occurred in the Dominican Republic
and Haiti, due mainly to flash flooding and subsequent mud slides in
high terrain regions. The lone direct death in the United States, which
was freshwater flood-related, occurred in Mobile, Alabama.
* - This number represents the best
estimate received to-date and is subject to revision at a later date.
Totals which appear in Table 5
from the Dominican Republic and Haiti are government-based estimates
as reported in media accounts.
Insured property damage estimates supplied by the Property
Claims Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group
estimates that Georges caused a total of $2.955 billion in damage in the
United States including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (see Table 5 for
individual state totals). These estimates exclude storm surge damage. To
determine the total estimated damage, a ratio of 2:1 is applied to the
insured property damage; this is based on comparisons done in historical
hurricanes. Thus, the total estimated damage from Georges is $5.9
billion.
In Puerto Rico, there was considerable damage to homes
throughout the island. A total of 72,605 homes were damaged, of which
28,005 are estimated to have been completely destroyed. During the
hurricane, over 26,000 people were in shelters. In the Dominican
Republic upwards of 185,000 were left homeless by Georges and 100,000
remained in shelters through mid-October as electricity and water
service remain out in most of the country. Across Haiti, government
officials stated that 167,332 had been left homeless by the
hurricane.
The agricultural industry in Puerto Rico was hit hard by
Georges with estimates of 95% of the plantain and banana crop destroyed
along with 75% of the coffee crop.
Despite Georges' weakened state when it moved across Cuba,
it had a substantial impact. A total of 60, 475 homes were damaged of
which 3,481 were completely destroyed. As was the case in Puerto Rico,
the agricultural sector was hard hit with major losses at banana
plantations in eastern Cuba.
The damage to dwellings in the United States was not as
extensive as that experienced across the Caribbean. In the Florida Keys
1536 homes were damaged of which 173 were completely destroyed, many of
which were mobile homes. Some roof and structural damage was also
reported along the coast of Mississippi.
In the first 60 days or so after Georges made its final
landfall in Mississippi, the American Red Cross spent $104 million on
relief services in the United States Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Florida Keys and the Florida
Panhandle. This makes it the most expensive disaster aid effort in the
organization's 117-year history.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Overall, the track forecasts for Georges were generally
good. The low average errors of CLIPER show that the hurricane followed
a climatologically-favored path.
The average track model and official forecast errors for
Georges are listed in Table
6. The average official forecast errors are well below the most
recent 10-year average. These values represent a 47% to 60% improvement
over the 10-year official averages: 60% at 12 hr, 56% at 24 hr, 56% at
36 hr, 53% at 48 hr, and 47% at 72 hr. It should be noted that the slow
motion of Georges over the north central Gulf of Mexico contributed to
the low errors.
Not surprisingly, most of the track model guidance did
quite well with Georges. In fact, with the exception of BAMS and a few
periods of the AVNI, AVNO and A98E, the average errors of all the other
track models were below the 10-year official averages. This includes the
United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKM/UKMI) and the European Centre
for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (EMX) models. Moreover, LBAR had
slightly smaller average errors that the official forecast from 12 to 36
hr (although the EMX 48 hr error was 84 n mi the sample size is too
small to make any meaningful conclusions). It should be mentioned,
however, that although the GFDL track
errors were well below the 10-year official forecast errors, it had a
distinct left-bias over the Gulf of Mexico, insisting on turning Georges
westward into central and southwest Louisiana.
While the average official track errors are exemplary, the
average intensity errors are unimpressive. The mean absolute errors, and
associated biases, for the official forecast, SHIPS, the GFDL and GFDI, and SHIFOR are listed in
Table 7.
The official mean intensity forecast errors are within 10% of the most
recent 10-year official average with the exception of 72 hr (16%). SHIPS
and the GFDI are in fairly good agreement with the official forecast
errors while the GFDL is considerably higher at 12 and 24 hr. The
official NHC forecast shows a positive bias (i.e. the intensity was
over-forecast) for all periods as opposed to the negative bias of the
10-year official average. SHIPS also shows a positive bias for all but
the 12 hr period, owing to the absence of land recognition in the model,
while both the GFDI and GFDL has a distinct negative bias throughout,
with that of the GFDL considerably larger. Of more interest are the
biases at specific times.
Examination of the intensity forecast history of Georges
shows several interesting trends. The first five official forecasts
after the system attained tropical storm strength under-forecast the
intensity an average of 18 knots between 12 to 48 hr and 44 knots at 72
hr. While SHIPS' intensity errors were comparable to the official
forecast, the GFDL faired worse with
29 knots between 12 and 48 hr and 55 knots at 72 hr. These forecasts
represent the period when Georges went through its rapid intensification
phase.
The intensity forecasts from 1800 UTC 19 September to 0600
UTC on 20th show a significant positive bias. This is when
Georges went through a marked weakening trend. During this period, both
the official NHC forecast and SHIPS over-forecast the intensity an
average of about 21 knots between 12 and 48 hr; at 72 hr the errors were
43 knots and 36 knots, respectively. The GFDL showed lower errors for this period
with a mostly negative bias. Several of the 12 hr forecasts
under-forecast the intensity by 50 knots. These data highlight our
limited skill level in forecasting rapid, abrupt changes in
intensity.
Table 8 lists
the various watches and warnings issued in association with Georges.
Since Georges was well-forecast, the lead times on the hurricane
warnings were more than sufficient to allow for the completion of
protective actions. A total of nearly 897,000 residents evacuated
portions of south and west central Florida including about 100,000
people in Dade County, and 35,000 in the Florida Keys in response to the
mandatory evacuation order issued by the Monroe County Emergency
Management.
References:
Franklin, J.L. 1997: Status of GPS dropwindsondes. Minutes, 51st
Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Miami, FL.
Franklin, J.L., H.L. Cole, T.F. Hock, D.K. Lauritsen, K.D. Norris,
and E.F. Chamberlain, 1997: GPS dropwindsondes and the NOAA G-IV
aircraft: New opportunities for forecasting and research. Preprints,
22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Collins,
CO, American Meteorological Society, 135-136.
Hagemeyer, R.H., 1998: Super Typhoon Paka December 2 thru 21, 1997.
DOC/NOAA Service Assessment, National Weather Service, Honolulu,
Hawaii, 28 pp.
Rappaport, E.N. and J. Fernandez-Partagas, 1995: The deadilest
Atlantic Tropical cyclones, 1492-1994, NOAA, Technical Memorandum
NWS-NHC-47, 41 pp.
Wurman, J. and J.Winslow, 1998: Intense Sub-kilometer-scale boundary
layer rolls observed in Hurricane Fran, Science, V.280, p555-7.
Acknowledgments:
The author is indebted to the NWS Forecast Offices in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Florida
(Miami, Melbourne, Tampa, and Tallahassee), Alabama (Mobile),
and Louisiana (New
Orleans/Baton Rouge) for their Post-Storm reports and related data.
Data provided by the Instituto de Meteorologica in Cuba is gratefully
appreciated. Damage data was kindly provided by the Property Claims
Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group. Steve Baig
produced the best track maps. Rick Ullom, SERFC Atlanta, Georgia,
provided the rainfall figure for the Gulfcoast region; Shawn Bennett,
SOO NWS San Juan, Puerto Rico,
provided the rainfall figure for Puerto Rico. The author wishes to thank
Lixion Avila, Jack Beven, Jerry Jarrell, Miles Lawrence, Max Mayfield, Richard Pasch, and Ed Rappaport
for reviewing this document and making numerous suggestions which helped
improve the report.
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